The Chefs, the Skins and Amarillo Slim (the use of "Chefs" was intentional)

Amarillo Slim, who is considered the world's greatest proposition gambler, once said "You can shear a sheep 100 times, but you can only skin it once". For those of you who aren't knowledgable about the world of gambling and cons, that basically means you can play a sucker for some of his money often, but you can only bankrupt him once.

Here in the D.C. area, Dan Snyder has his hunting knife out and is starting to skin Redskin fans. After ten years of finding every possible way to reach into Redskins fans' pockets and pull out a dollar, Snyder is down to what may be his final con, putting the worst Redskins team in decades on the field and asking fans to continue to pay for admission to FedEx Field.

I won't list out all the scams Snyder has pulled over the years, Dave McKenna of the Washington City Paper is making a career of doing that. And, most everyone in the area read the series of articles a few weeks back in the Washington Post about ticket brokers getting first shot at tickets from the Redskins ticket office and the team filing suit against premium seat ticket holders who broke their multi-season contracts. But, none of Snyder's stunts compare to the fact Snyder continues to fancy himself a football operations expert after 10 years of Redskins mediocrity or worse and that he wants Redskins fans to believe it.

Finally, Redskins fans are seeing the light and realizing they are getting skinned. There are more and more empty seats at Fed Up...I mean...FedEx Field and fan reaction in the media outlets is one of disgust. Of course, we won't know for sure if the skinning is complete until those empty seats at FedEx Field are being driven by unsold tickets and not just no shows. Snyder's skinning of the Redskins fan base will be complete when the fans have turned the tide and put some pain in Snyder's pocket the way he has done the fans' pockets the last ten years.

Today's Redskins loss to the Chiefs continues the Redskins trend of helping teams in the midst of losing streaks break them. A couple of weeks back, I was in Missouri the day after the Chiefs got blasted by the Philadelphia Eagles 34-14. I gave the two sports radio stations in Kansas City a long listen that day while I was driving from Columbia to K.C. It was amazing how similar the calls into the station were to the calls received by the sports radio stations here in the D.C. area. There were the recurring themes in the calls of how the team had no direction, no talent and no hope. A common comment that day was "even Lions won yesterday" (the Lions had defeated the Redskins). For a while, I debated calling one of the stations to make a point I thought all those Chiefs fans were missing, at least they had a real football executive running the team since the Chiefs'owners had hired Scott Pioli away from the New England Patriots during the offseason. That alone puts the Chiefs one giant step ahead of the Redskins. Hell, today's game puts them two steps ahead of the Redskins.
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I'm thinking it's about time the Redskins were the subject of a commerical like this one that once used the Chiefs...I mean the Chefs...as the punchline.

Quickies

Last week, Delaware governor Jack Markell signed legislation legalizing sports betting in Delaware. Now, it's up to the Delaware Supreme Court to work through the myriad of legal issues to determine exactly how the sports betting system will work in the state. Meanwhile, both the NFL and NCAA are unhappy and, as mentioned in a previous post, the NCAA is threatening to prohibit all colleges located in Delaware from hosting any NCAA playoff/tournament games. The latest on the situation is covered in detail in this Philadelphia Inquirer piece.

For a while Saturday, I thought I'd post my official Preakness preview and prediction. But, after providing you readers with some poor picks based on sound handicapping for the Kentucky Derby, I thought better of it. And, it's a good thing I did. My advice was going to be "don't make the sucker bet by putting your money on Rachel Alexandra." From what I've read, the close finish between Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird has temporarily piqued America's interest in the Sport of Kings. Unfortunately, in Maryland, the lack purse money because of a lack of slot machines has damaged the overall racing scene. And, the ban on taking your own booze into the infield at Pimlico caused a substantial drop in attendance at this year's Preakness. This article from Saturday's Washington Post and this one from Sunday examine the two issues. In this column, Andrew Beyer proposes his solution to the Maryland's racing industry woes.

I wanted to find one good gambling song on Youtube to make this an all gambling Quickies post. But, I couldn't find a performance clip of any of the songs I was thinking of, Merle Haggard's "Kentucky Gambler", "Blackjack" by Albert Collins, or Mike Ness' version of "Gamblin' Man". Unfortunately, my search on "Gamblin' Man" found this awful, and I mean really awful, clip of a Hager Brothers appearance on Hee Haw.

Quickies

This week's Quickies post is a day early in order to make room for a special Shedd's Spot post on Monday.

Sports Illustrated recently ran this piece listing the five best and worst owners in each of the four major professional sports. Not surprisingly, two local owners, Dan Snyder and Ted Lerner, made the worst lists for their respective sports. All regular readers know how I feel about Redskins owner Dan Snyder. How anyone whose only football playing experience is smear the queer as a child (and I'm guessing he was the queer) can have a big enough ego to think he can be the end all when it comes to player personnel deccision is beyond me. As to Lerner, I'm still drinking the Kool-Aid and believing the Nationals will turn it around in the next couple of seasons. Ted Lerner's biggest mistake, and it was a HUGE one, was keeping Jim Bowden as general manager when Lerner took ownership of the team in 2006.

Regular readers may remember a post a few weeks back mentioning the state of Delaware was consdering legalizing a form of sports betting. The orginal bill died, but a revised version passed the state's lethe Clock"gislature last week. Here is a story on the updated legislation. By the way, the NCAA is still opposed to the bill.

55 years ago today (May 10, 1954), "Rock Around the Clock" was released by Bill Haley & His Comets. "Rock Around the Clock" is considered to be the first rock and roll song to make #1 on the pop charts, although it did not make #1 until 1955, after its inclusion in the movie Blackboard Jungle. Haley died of natural causes in 1981, but there are several stories of very bizarre behavior in his final days. Haley's life and death was the subject of Dave Alvin's song "Haley's Comet" which was released on Alvin's 1991 CD Blue Boulevard.

The Official Shedd's Spot Kentucky Derby Prediction

Folks who know me, know I like to gamble a little. Fortunately, I live in a part of the country where casino gambling isn't readily available. That, combined with the crack down a few years back on gamblers' abilities to fund offshore accounts, really stopped me from pissing a lot of money away. But, instead of sending thank you notes to Congress and the members of the state legislatures in Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia, I'm going to give in to my gambling urge today and use my long abandoned Youbet.com account to satisfy the urge.

Post time for today's 135th Kentucky Derby is 6:24. A live cut in on TV a little while ago showed wet and rainy conditions in Louisville. Those conditions, combined with two other factors, one old and one relatively new, make handicapping the Derby more of a crapshoot than ever.

Let's take a brief look at each of these three factors, beginning with the weather. A lot of people don't like to be out in the rain and mud, and some horses feel that way too. Seeing the majority of the horses in the Derby began their racing careers in California of Florida, very few of the entrants have any experience racing in wet conditions. This includes favorites I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile. You just cannot predict how a horse will run his first time in the mud. On the other hand, Friesan Fire won the Louisiana Derby on a sloppy track and Papa Clem finished 2nd in the same race.

The relatively new factor that muddles handicapping the Derby is change of racing surfaces in states such as Calilfornia. At Churchill Downs, site of the Derby, the racing surface is still dirt. But, in Cailifornia, tracks have replaced their dirt surfaces with synthetic ones in an attempt to prevent horse injuries. Many of the prep races leading up to the Derby are held in Califiornia and many of the entrants have raced most, if not all, of their careers on synthetic surfaces. The morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, seems to have made a successful switch to dirt by winning the Wood Memorial and Gotham Stakes in New York after beginning his career on the synthetic tracks in Cailifornia. But, from what I've read, this seems to be an exception to the norm.

The traditonal factor that complicates handicapping the Derby is the large field. 20 horses will enter the starting gate today. With that many horses in the race, it's easy for even the best of horses to get pinned back in the field or on the rail. One stroke of bad luck heading for the first turn and your horse may be done.

With all that said, it's probably just as easy to throw a dart at the Kentucky Derby program and pick a winner instead of reading the program. But, I've actually put some thought into my prediction, so here goes....

It would be VERY easy to go with morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, based on based on his speed figures and two prep wins at Aqueduct which proved he could make the transition from synthetic surfaces to dirt. But at morning line odds of 3-1, that seems like too much of a sucker bet in wet conditions against against 19 other horses. Plus, if you follow Andrew Beyer, you know the horses he picks to win the Derby NEVER win and he is all over I Want Revenge.

Pioneer of the Nile, at a morning line of 4-1, has already won over a million dollars in his young career, but all but $40,000 of those winnings, came on synthetic surfaces. (BTW, the other $40K came on turf.) He has started six times on synthetic surfaces and twice on turf.

Dunkirk, at a morning line of 4-1, has the highest past speed figure of any horse in the race, but has very little experience having raced only three times. Also, Dunkirk did not race as a two year old and no horse without 2 YO experience has won the Derby in years.

Freisan Fire , at a morning line of 5-1, looks to be a solid pick here because he has won the Louisiana Derby in wet conditions and has raced exclusively on dirt. But, one thing about Friesan Fire concerns me. He has not raced since winning the La. Derby on March 14th.

So, where does that leave me, you ask? I'm going to look for value in today's race. And, I think that value comes in the form of Papa Clem, who is 20-1 in the morning line odds. Papa Clem won the Arkansas Derby his last time out on April 11th with a good speed number. Prior to that, he finished 2nd to Friesan Fire in the slop of the Louisiana Derby. In Feb., he finished ahead of I Want Revenge in a race at Santa Anita.

The official Shedd's Spot prediction:
1) Papa Clem
2) Friesan Fire
3) I Want Revenge
4) Dunkirk

Happy gambling.

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In the few minutes since I finalized this post, favorite I Want Revenge was scratched from the race!!!! Here is Shedd's Spot's revised prediction:
1) Papa Clem
2) Friesan Fire
3) Dunkirk
4) West Side Bernie (morning line odds of 30-1)

The Big Bad NCAA Is At It Again...

Some of you may heard Delaware is considering legalizing sports wagering. New governor Jack Markell and the state legislature are formulating a plan to have a bill passed by the end of the year. According to this Philadelphia Daily News article, the Delaware plan for sports wagering will not allow for single bets. All bets will have to be part of multiple bet parlays.

It should come as no surprise to anyone the NCAA wants to have a say in this. The Sports Network reported in March the NCAA is threatening to prohibit the University of Delware, Delaware State and Wesley College from hosting any NCAA playoff games if the state legalizes sports betting. This is another case of the NCAA attempting to throw its weight around in small states and markets, much as it did when started its effort to get the University of North Dakota to end its use of the Fighting Sioux nickname (while large schools such as Florida State go largely unscathed). Generally, the NCAA's effort against sports betting will only effect the University of Delaware, which has hosted 14 Division I-AA playoff games over the years. It has been a given in I-AA football that if Delaware gets a playoff bid, the school will host at least one playoff game because the Blue Hens consistently are among the leaders in attendance in Division I-AA (I still refuse to call it the Football Championship Subdivision). So, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Personally, as a JMU alumnus and season ticket holder, Delaware being prohibited from hosting playoff games would make me quite happy. But, I'd still think the reasoning behind it is asinine.